Applied Digital
Nasdaq-listed developer of AI-factory campuses in North Dakota (Polaris Forge) leased long-term to CoreWeave and an investment-grade hyperscaler.
www.applieddigital.com · Record collected 25 Sept 2026
Profile from NeoCloud Observatory research (snapshot 2026-09-25); every figure links to its original source.
Profile
- Headquarters
- Not yet recorded
- Founded
- Not yet recorded
- Ownership
- public · Nasdaq: APLD
- Operating regions
- North America
- Deployment model
- wholesale datacenter capacity
- GPU vendors
- Not yet recorded
- GPU generations
- Not yet recorded
- Networking
- Not yet recorded
- Storage
- Not yet recorded
- Cooling
- Not yet recorded
- Energy strategy
- Not yet recorded
- Platform / control plane
- Not yet recorded
- Business model
- Not yet recorded
- Differentiation
- Not yet recorded
Source: Applied Digital — Applied Digital Finalizes Additional 150MW Lease with CoreWeave in North Dakota
Capacity register
Each sourced figure with its maturity and MW type. Figures of different types are not added together.
No sourced capacity figures recorded.
Projects
| Project | Location | Status | Capacity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polaris Forge 1 (Ellendale, ND) Phase 1 of Building 1 ready for service. Participants: null (tenant). Source: NeoCloud Observatory research. Sources: Applied Digital — Applied Digital Finalizes Additional 150MW Lease with CoreWeave in North Dakota, Applied Digital — Applied Digital Achieves Ready for Service for Phase 1 at Polaris Forge 1 Building 1 for CoreWeave | Ellendale, North Dakota, United States | partially operational | 400 MW (it load, contracted) |
Disclosed customer contracts
| Customer | Value | Basis | Term | Date | Status & source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CoreWeaveneocloud | $11.0B | Total contract value | 15 yr | 1 Sept 2025 | signed Total for full 400 MW PF1 incl. additional 150 MW. Source: Applied Digital — Applied Digital Finalizes Additional 150MW Lease with CoreWeave in North Dakota |
| Undisclosed investment-grade US hyperscaler | $5.0B | Total contract value | 15 yr | 15 Oct 2025 | signed Source: Applied Digital — Applied Digital Announces $5 Billion AI Factory Lease with U.S. Based Investment Grade Hyperscaler |
Neocloud Observatory
Evidence-scored analysis
Category G · Adjacent Provider · data quality 66.4/100 · snapshot 25 Sept 2026
Capacity by maturity (MW)
Each stage is reported separately and never added together. Announced GPUs never count as operational.
- Operational Unknown
- Under construction Unknown
- Contracted 400 MW
- Secured Unknown
- Announced Unknown
- Stated pipeline 1,000 MW
- Company target Unknown
- GPUs operational
- Unknown
- GPUs contracted
- Unknown
- GPUs announced
- Unknown
Financial position
- Annualised revenue
- Unknown
- Revenue growth (YoY)
- Unknown
- Backlog
- $16B
- Disclosed contract value
- $16B
- Valuation
- Unknown
- Equity raised (captured)
- Unknown
- Debt raised (captured)
- Unknown
- Total debt (reported)
- Unknown
- Hyperscaler credit supportnot cash raised
- Unknown
Largest disclosed customer: coreweave · 69% of disclosed contract value
Scorecard
score-v1.0 · 0–100 · scores with under 34% evidence coverage stay empty
Business Model Quality 61 evidence coverage 60%
- contracted revenue model: 80 (weight 0.4) — long-term contracted model
- model diversity: 22 (weight 0.2) — wholesale_datacenter_capacity
- margin: unknown (weight 0.25) — no margin data
- software upside: unknown (weight 0.15) — 0 software layers
Capital Access Insufficient evidence evidence coverage 0%
- total capital raised: unknown (weight 0.3) — UNKNOWN equity+debt captured
- raised last 12m: unknown (weight 0.25) — UNKNOWN in 12m
- valuation: unknown (weight 0.2) — no valuation UNKNOWN
- strategic backers: unknown (weight 0.15) — 0 investors known
- cost of debt: unknown (weight 0.1) — no rate disclosed
Competitive Moat Insufficient evidence evidence coverage 25%
- physical control: unknown (weight 0.3) — power/land/DC control
- software depth: unknown (weight 0.25) — 0 software layers
- contracted lock in: 74 (weight 0.25) — backlog/contract value $16.00B
- operational reputation: unknown (weight 0.2) — not rated
Concentration Risk (higher = riskier) 67 evidence coverage 100%
- top customer share: 69 (weight 0.8) — top customer ≈69%
- few customers: 60 (weight 0.2) — 2 disclosed customers
Customer Diversification 42 evidence coverage 100%
- top customer share: 44 (weight 0.6) — top customer ≈69% of disclosed value
- distinct customers: 40 (weight 0.4) — 2 disclosed customer relationships
Customer Quality 57 evidence coverage 100%
- hyperscaler or lab: 40 (weight 0.5) — 2 disclosed customers
- contracted value: 74 (weight 0.5) — disclosed contract value $16.00B
Execution Risk (higher = riskier) 90 evidence coverage 70%
- build to operating ratio: 100 (weight 0.45) — 400 MW to build vs 0 MW operating
- soft pipeline share: 71 (weight 0.25) — 1,000 MW secured/announced/speculative
- organisational youth: unknown (weight 0.3) — founded UNKNOWN
Financial Durability Insufficient evidence evidence coverage 10%
- revenue scale: unknown (weight 0.3) — annualised revenue UNKNOWN (n/a)
- net margin: unknown (weight 0.2) — no margin data
- cash: unknown (weight 0.2) — cash UNKNOWN
- backlog coverage: unknown (weight 0.2) — no backlog/revenue
- public disclosure: 80 (weight 0.1) — public company (audited)
Financial Risk (higher = riskier) Insufficient evidence evidence coverage 0%
- losses: unknown (weight 0.3) — no margin data
- debt to revenue: unknown (weight 0.3) — no debt/revenue data
- reliance on new capital: unknown (weight 0.25) — n/a
- revenue scale inverse: unknown (weight 0.15) — revenue UNKNOWN
Geographic Position 29 evidence coverage 100%
- countries: 18 (weight 0.6) — United States
- sovereign positioning: 45 (weight 0.4) — no sovereign positioning
GPU Supply Position Insufficient evidence evidence coverage 0%
- gpu fleet and contracted: unknown (weight 0.4) — 0 GPUs operational+contracted
- vendor relationship: unknown (weight 0.3) — no strategic vendor tie evidenced
- latest generation: unknown (weight 0.3) — no GPU model data
Growth Momentum 30 evidence coverage 45%
- revenue growth yoy: unknown (weight 0.4) — no growth data
- capacity momentum: 54 (weight 0.25) — 400 MW contracted/under construction
- recent major events: 0 (weight 0.2) — 0 major confirmed events in 180d
- capital raised 12m: unknown (weight 0.15) — raised UNKNOWN in 12m
Infrastructure Execution 80 evidence coverage 60%
- delivered projects: 100 (weight 0.4) — 1/1 tracked projects (partially) operational
- operational share of hard mw: unknown (weight 0.4) — 0 of 400 hard MW operational
- building now: 40 (weight 0.2) — 0 under construction
Management Execution 32 evidence coverage 50%
- delivered capacity: unknown (weight 0.5) — 0 MW delivered to date
- milestones 180d: 0 (weight 0.3) — 0 confirmed major milestones (180d)
- disclosure discipline: 80 (weight 0.2) — public reporting cadence
Operational Capacity Insufficient evidence evidence coverage 0%
- operational mw: unknown (weight 0.65) — operational MW UNKNOWN
- operational gpus: unknown (weight 0.35) — operational GPUs UNKNOWN
Power Pipeline Quality 45 evidence coverage 80%
- weighted pipeline mw: 55 (weight 0.5) — ladder-weighted 330 MW
- hard share: 29 (weight 0.3) — 29% of stated MW is operational/under construction/contracted
- physical power control: unknown (weight 0.2) — physical-layer control 0/100
Software Platform Maturity Insufficient evidence evidence coverage 0%
- software layers: unknown (weight 0.5) — none evidenced
- software control: unknown (weight 0.25) — software-layer control 0/100
- independent rating: unknown (weight 0.25) — not rated
Strategic Partnerships 30 evidence coverage 40%
- vendor equity: unknown (weight 0.4) — no vendor equity evidenced
- hyperscaler ties: 30 (weight 0.4) — none evidenced
- exemplar or rating: unknown (weight 0.2) — n/a
Technical Differentiation Insufficient evidence evidence coverage 0%
- differentiators: unknown (weight 0.7) — no clear differentiator evidenced
- independent rating: unknown (weight 0.3) — not rated
Technical Strength Insufficient evidence evidence coverage 0%
- independent rating: unknown (weight 0.45) — not rated
- exemplar cloud: unknown (weight 0.15) — n/a
- fabric evidence: unknown (weight 0.15) — fabric UNKNOWN
- stack documentation: unknown (weight 0.25) — 0 technology layers evidenced
Vertical Integration Insufficient evidence evidence coverage 0%
- stack control: unknown (weight 1) — 0 of 12 layers evidenced; 12 UNKNOWN
Career Opportunity 33 evidence coverage 44%
- growth momentum: 30 (weight 0.2) — Growth Momentum
- capital access: unknown (weight 0.15) — Capital Access
- technical strength: unknown (weight 0.12) — Technical Strength
- software platform maturity: unknown (weight 0.12) — Software Platform Maturity
- power pipeline quality: 45 (weight 0.1) — Power Pipeline Quality
- geographic position: 29 (weight 0.06) — Geographic Position
- strategic partnerships: 30 (weight 0.08) — Strategic Partnerships
- hiring: unknown (weight 0.07) — open roles (public boards)
- inv financial risk: unknown (weight 0.1) — 100 - financial risk
Data Quality 66 evidence coverage 29%
- dq coverage: unknown (weight 0) — 0.294
- dq avg confidence: unknown (weight 0) — 0.785
- dq primary source pct: unknown (weight 0) — 1.0
- dq freshness days: unknown (weight 0) — 0
- dq conflicts: unknown (weight 0) — 0
- dq missing count: unknown (weight 0) — 12
Worth Investigating? (not investment advice) 45 evidence coverage 60%
- growth momentum: 30 (weight 0.18) — Growth Momentum
- technical differentiation: unknown (weight 0.12) — Technical Differentiation
- customer quality: 57 (weight 0.12) — Customer Quality
- power pipeline quality: 45 (weight 0.12) — Power Pipeline Quality
- capital access: unknown (weight 0.12) — Capital Access
- strategic partnerships: 30 (weight 0.1) — Strategic Partnerships
- technical strength: unknown (weight 0.08) — Technical Strength
- infrastructure execution: 80 (weight 0.08) — Infrastructure Execution
- operational capacity: unknown (weight 0.08) — Operational Capacity
- novelty bonus: 0 (weight 0.3) — company ≤3 years old
Overall Scale Potential Insufficient evidence evidence coverage 50%
- power pipeline quality: 45 (weight 0.3)
- capital access: unknown (weight 0.25)
- customer quality: 57 (weight 0.2)
- operational capacity: unknown (weight 0.15)
- vertical integration: unknown (weight 0.1)
Overall Survival Probability (5y, %) 58 evidence coverage 3%
- model: unknown (weight 1) — logistic(durability, capital access, customer quality, risks)
Forecasts (rule-based, P10–P90)
| Horizon | Operational MW | Annualised revenue |
|---|---|---|
| 12 months | 160 MW (80 MW–250 MW) | Unknown |
| 24 months | 290 MW (200 MW–400 MW) | Unknown |
| 36 months | 370 MW (260 MW–480 MW) | Unknown |
| 60 months | 420 MW (310 MW–550 MW) | Unknown |
Stored in an immutable prediction ledger and scored against reported outcomes when they fall due. Predictions, not facts.
Outcome probabilities
| Outcome | 12 mo | 24 mo | 36 mo | 60 mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Remain independent | 75% | 53% | 33% | 0% |
| Acquired | 11% | 21% | 30% | 43% |
| Merge | 3% | 6% | 9% | 14% |
| Fail | 11% | 21% | 29% | 43% |
| Acquire another company | 8% | 15% | 22% | 34% |
| Financial distress | 8% | 15% | 22% | 34% |
| Major cloud scale (≥2 GW operational or ≥$10B revenue) | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Remain niche | 89% | 79% | 71% | 57% |
| Strategic pivot | 10% | 15% | 20% | 30% |
| Exit AI infrastructure | 6% | 12% | 18% | 30% |
Ownership outcomes (independent, acquired, merge, fail) sum to 100% at each horizon; the others are independent events.
Vertical-integration stack
- energy UNKNOWN No evidence captured (unknown)
- land UNKNOWN No evidence captured (unknown)
- data center UNKNOWN No evidence captured (unknown)
- power cooling UNKNOWN No evidence captured (unknown)
- gpu hardware UNKNOWN No evidence captured (unknown)
- network UNKNOWN No evidence captured (unknown)
- storage UNKNOWN No evidence captured (unknown)
- bare metal UNKNOWN No evidence captured (unknown)
- orchestration UNKNOWN No evidence captured (unknown)
- cloud api UNKNOWN No evidence captured (unknown)
- ai platform UNKNOWN No evidence captured (unknown)
- managed ai UNKNOWN No evidence captured (unknown)
Not yet sourced: revenue, revenue run rate, valuation, power mw.operational, gpu count, cash, employees, profile.hq country, profile.ceo, profile.founded year, tech stack, stack control.
Timeline
-
1 Sept 2025 · fact
Applied Digital: full 400 MW Polaris Forge 1 leased to CoreWeave (~$11B over ~15 years)
Source: Applied Digital — Applied Digital Finalizes Additional 150MW Lease with CoreWeave in North Dakota
Recent coverage
Updated 1 Nov 2026, 11:54 UTC
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