IREN
Nasdaq-listed former bitcoin miner (Iris Energy) that owns its power-connected sites in Texas and British Columbia and now runs an NVIDIA GB300 AI cloud; $9.7B Microsoft contract.
iren.com · Record collected 25 Sept 2026
Profile from NeoCloud Observatory research (snapshot 2026-09-25); every figure links to its original source.
Business model and differentiation text: NeoCloud Observatory research (analysis, not HYBSIS assessment).
Profile
- Headquarters
- Sydney, Australia
- Founded
- 2018
- Ownership
- public · Nasdaq: IREN
- Operating regions
- Asia-Pacific, North America
- Deployment model
- hyperscaler capacity supply, bare metal, bitcoin mining
- GPU vendors
- NVIDIA
- GPU generations
- NVIDIA Hopper, NVIDIA Blackwell, NVIDIA Blackwell Ultra
- Networking
- Not yet recorded
- Storage
- Not yet recorded
- Cooling
- Direct-to-chip liquid cooling (Horizon)
- Energy strategy
- controlled — Owns large grid interconnections (2 GW Sweetwater) — does not generate power.
- Platform / control plane
- Not yet recorded
- Business model
- Bare-metal GB300 GPU cloud capacity on owned, power-connected campuses; legacy bitcoin mining.
- Differentiation
- Owned power and land = speed and cost; Microsoft contract validates quality (Exemplar Cloud).
Sources: SEC EDGAR — IREN Ltd Form 10-K FY2026, SEC EDGAR — IREN Reports FY26 Results (8-K)
Capacity register
Each sourced figure with its maturity and MW type. Figures of different types are not added together.
| MW | Maturity | MW type | As of | Status & source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | operational | it load | 13 Aug 2026 | Operational Confidence: high Horizon 1 (50 MW IT) delivered to Microsoft at Childress. Source: GlobeNewswire (IREN) — IREN Delivers Horizon 1 to Microsoft and Achieves NVIDIA Exemplar Cloud Status on GB300 NVL72 |
| 150 | under construction | it load | 27 Aug 2026 | Announced Confidence: high Horizons 2-4 (3 x 50 MW) commissioning/late-stage construction, delivery targeted Q4 2026. Source: SEC EDGAR — IREN Reports FY26 Results (8-K) |
| 800 | announced | unspecified | 27 Aug 2026 | Announced Confidence: high Cumulative ~0.8 GW (IT) targeted in 2027. Source: SEC EDGAR — IREN Reports FY26 Results (8-K) |
| 300 | announced | unspecified | 27 Aug 2026 | Announced Confidence: high Cumulative ~0.3 GW (IT) delivery targeted in 2026. Source: SEC EDGAR — IREN Reports FY26 Results (8-K) |
| 5,000 | potential | power pipeline | 27 Aug 2026 | Estimated Confidence: high Global data center pipeline ~5 GW. Source: SEC EDGAR — IREN Reports FY26 Results (8-K) |
Projects
| Project | Location | Status | Capacity |
|---|---|---|---|
| IREN Childress campus (Horizon 1-4) Horizon 1 delivered; Horizon 2 commissioning; Horizons 3-4 target Q4 2026. Participants: Microsoft (end customer). Source: NeoCloud Observatory research. Sources: GlobeNewswire (IREN) — IREN Delivers Horizon 1 to Microsoft and Achieves NVIDIA Exemplar Cloud Status on GB300 NVL72, SEC EDGAR — IREN Reports FY26 Results (8-K) | Childress, Texas, United States | partially operational | 200 MW (it load, contracted) |
| IREN Sweetwater 1 & 2 hub Grid connection energisation staged; 2 GW hub concept. Participants: —. Source: NeoCloud Observatory research. Source: SEC EDGAR — IREN Ltd Form 10-K FY2025 (Sweetwater 1/2 description) | Sweetwater, Texas, United States | under construction | 2,000 MW (grid connection, secured) |
| IREN British Columbia sites (Prince George, Mackenzie, Canal Flats) Operating mining/AI sites; liquid-cooled AI deployments planned 2027. Participants: —. Source: NeoCloud Observatory research. Source: SEC EDGAR — IREN Ltd Form 10-K FY2026 | Prince George, British Columbia, Canada | operational | Not sourced |
Disclosed customer contracts
| Customer | Value | Basis | Term | Date | Status & source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Microsofthyperscaler | $9.7B | Total contract value | 5 yr | 3 Nov 2025 | signed 20% customer prepayment; ~$1.9B expected ARR contribution. Source: IREN — IREN Signs $9.7 Billion Agreement with Microsoft |
Financing & M&A
| Date | Type | Amount | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Aug 2026 | debt | $3.6B | IREN — GPU financing for Microsoft contract '<6% per annum' interest rate (upper bound stored). Source: SEC EDGAR — IREN Reports FY26 Results (8-K) |
| 3 Nov 2025 | other | $1.9B | IREN — Microsoft 20% prepayment DERIVED: 20% of $9.7B contract value; timing of receipt not captured. Source: IREN — IREN Signs $9.7 Billion Agreement with Microsoft |
Neocloud Observatory
Evidence-scored analysis
Category B · Vertically Integrated AI Infrastructure · data quality 83.5/100 · snapshot 25 Sept 2026
Capacity by maturity (MW)
Each stage is reported separately and never added together. Announced GPUs never count as operational.
- Operational 50 MW
- Under construction 150 MW
- Contracted 200 MW
- Secured 2,000 MW
- Announced Unknown
- Stated pipeline 5,000 MW
- Company target 800 MW
- GPUs operational
- Unknown
- GPUs contracted
- Unknown
- GPUs announced
- Unknown
GPU platforms: NVIDIA B200 / H200 (earlier AI cloud) · NVIDIA GB300 NVL72
Financial position
- Annualised revenuereported run-rate
- $1B
- Revenue growth (YoY)
- Unknown
- Backlog
- Unknown
- Disclosed contract value
- $9.7B
- Valuationmarket capitalization
- $16.5B
- Equity raised (captured)
- Unknown
- Debt raised (captured)
- $3.6B
- Total debt (reported)
- Unknown
- Hyperscaler credit supportnot cash raised
- Unknown
Largest disclosed customer: microsoft · 100% of disclosed contract value
Scorecard
score-v1.0 · 0–100 · scores with under 34% evidence coverage stay empty
Business Model Quality 60 evidence coverage 75%
- contracted revenue model: 80 (weight 0.4) — long-term contracted model
- model diversity: 66 (weight 0.2) — hyperscaler_capacity_supply, bare_metal, bitcoin_mining
- margin: unknown (weight 0.25) — no margin data
- software upside: 0 (weight 0.15) — 0 software layers
Capital Access 72 evidence coverage 85%
- total capital raised: 66 (weight 0.3) — $3.60B equity+debt captured
- raised last 12m: 77 (weight 0.25) — $5.54B in 12m
- valuation: 74 (weight 0.2) — market_capitalization valuation $16.55B
- strategic backers: unknown (weight 0.15) — 0 investors known
- cost of debt: 76 (weight 0.1) — lowest disclosed rate 6.0%
Competitive Moat 48 evidence coverage 100%
- physical control: 95 (weight 0.3) — power/land/DC control
- software depth: 0 (weight 0.25) — 0 software layers
- contracted lock in: 66 (weight 0.25) — backlog/contract value $9.70B
- operational reputation: 15 (weight 0.2) — Underperforming (ClusterMAX 3.0)
Concentration Risk (higher = riskier) 96 evidence coverage 100%
- top customer share: 100 (weight 0.8) — top customer ≈100%
- few customers: 80 (weight 0.2) — 1 disclosed customers
Customer Diversification 8 evidence coverage 100%
- top customer share: 0 (weight 0.6) — top customer ≈100% of disclosed value
- distinct customers: 20 (weight 0.4) — 1 disclosed customer relationships
Customer Quality 76 evidence coverage 100%
- hyperscaler or lab: 85 (weight 0.5) — hyperscaler or AI-lab customer
- contracted value: 66 (weight 0.5) — disclosed contract value $9.70B
Execution Risk (higher = riskier) 65 evidence coverage 100%
- build to operating ratio: 90 (weight 0.45) — 350 MW to build vs 50 MW operating
- soft pipeline share: 95 (weight 0.25) — 7,000 MW secured/announced/speculative
- organisational youth: 4 (weight 0.3) — founded 2018
Financial Durability 72 evidence coverage 60%
- revenue scale: 61 (weight 0.3) — annualised revenue $1.00B (reported run-rate)
- net margin: unknown (weight 0.2) — no margin data
- cash: unknown (weight 0.2) — cash UNKNOWN
- backlog coverage: 86 (weight 0.2) — backlog/revenue 9.7x
- public disclosure: 80 (weight 0.1) — public company (audited)
Financial Risk (higher = riskier) 56 evidence coverage 70%
- losses: unknown (weight 0.3) — no margin data
- debt to revenue: 55 (weight 0.3) — captured debt / annualised revenue 3.6x
- reliance on new capital: 68 (weight 0.25) — 12m capital raised / revenue 5.5x
- revenue scale inverse: 39 (weight 0.15) — revenue $1.00B
Geographic Position 50 evidence coverage 100%
- countries: 54 (weight 0.6) — Australia, Canada, United States
- sovereign positioning: 45 (weight 0.4) — no sovereign positioning
GPU Supply Position 93 evidence coverage 60%
- gpu fleet and contracted: unknown (weight 0.4) — 0 GPUs operational+contracted
- vendor relationship: 95 (weight 0.3) — NVIDIA investor/Exemplar
- latest generation: 90 (weight 0.3) — NVIDIA B200 / H200 (earlier AI cloud), NVIDIA GB300 NVL72
Growth Momentum 57 evidence coverage 60%
- revenue growth yoy: unknown (weight 0.4) — no growth data
- capacity momentum: 52 (weight 0.25) — 350 MW contracted/under construction
- recent major events: 50 (weight 0.2) — 2 major confirmed events in 180d
- capital raised 12m: 74 (weight 0.15) — raised $5.54B in 12m
Infrastructure Execution 44 evidence coverage 100%
- delivered projects: 67 (weight 0.4) — 2/3 tracked projects (partially) operational
- operational share of hard mw: 13 (weight 0.4) — 50 of 400 hard MW operational
- building now: 60 (weight 0.2) — 1 under construction
Management Execution 50 evidence coverage 100%
- delivered capacity: 38 (weight 0.5) — 50 MW delivered to date
- milestones 180d: 50 (weight 0.3) — 2 confirmed major milestones (180d)
- disclosure discipline: 80 (weight 0.2) — public reporting cadence
Operational Capacity 36 evidence coverage 65%
- operational mw: 36 (weight 0.65) — 50 MW operational (company-level (it_load))
- operational gpus: unknown (weight 0.35) — operational GPUs UNKNOWN
Power Pipeline Quality 60 evidence coverage 100%
- weighted pipeline mw: 79 (weight 0.5) — ladder-weighted 1,560 MW
- hard share: 5 (weight 0.3) — 5% of stated MW is operational/under construction/contracted
- physical power control: 95 (weight 0.2) — physical-layer control 95/100
Software Platform Maturity 6 evidence coverage 100%
- software layers: 0 (weight 0.5) — none evidenced
- software control: 10 (weight 0.25) — software-layer control 10/100
- independent rating: 15 (weight 0.25) — Underperforming (ClusterMAX 3.0)
Strategic Partnerships 90 evidence coverage 60%
- vendor equity: unknown (weight 0.4) — no vendor equity evidenced
- hyperscaler ties: 90 (weight 0.4) — hyperscaler customer or credit backstop
- exemplar or rating: 90 (weight 0.2) — NVIDIA Exemplar / top ClusterMAX
Technical Differentiation 40 evidence coverage 100%
- differentiators: 50 (weight 0.7) — liquid/immersion cooling, controls power/land
- independent rating: 15 (weight 0.3) — Underperforming (ClusterMAX 3.0)
Technical Strength 38 evidence coverage 85%
- independent rating: 15 (weight 0.45) — Underperforming (ClusterMAX 3.0)
- exemplar cloud: 90 (weight 0.15) — NVIDIA Exemplar Cloud
- fabric evidence: unknown (weight 0.15) — fabric UNKNOWN
- stack documentation: 48 (weight 0.25) — 4 technology layers evidenced
Vertical Integration 78 evidence coverage 100%
- stack control: 78 (weight 1) — 9 of 12 layers evidenced; 3 UNKNOWN
Career Opportunity 52 evidence coverage 93%
- growth momentum: 57 (weight 0.2) — Growth Momentum
- capital access: 72 (weight 0.15) — Capital Access
- technical strength: 38 (weight 0.12) — Technical Strength
- software platform maturity: 6 (weight 0.12) — Software Platform Maturity
- power pipeline quality: 60 (weight 0.1) — Power Pipeline Quality
- geographic position: 50 (weight 0.06) — Geographic Position
- strategic partnerships: 90 (weight 0.08) — Strategic Partnerships
- hiring: unknown (weight 0.07) — open roles (public boards)
- inv financial risk: 44 (weight 0.1) — 100 - financial risk
Data Quality 84 evidence coverage 77%
- dq coverage: unknown (weight 0) — 0.765
- dq avg confidence: unknown (weight 0) — 0.835
- dq primary source pct: unknown (weight 0) — 0.852
- dq freshness days: unknown (weight 0) — 0
- dq conflicts: unknown (weight 0) — 0
- dq missing count: unknown (weight 0) — 4
Worth Investigating? (not investment advice) 58 evidence coverage 100%
- growth momentum: 57 (weight 0.18) — Growth Momentum
- technical differentiation: 40 (weight 0.12) — Technical Differentiation
- customer quality: 76 (weight 0.12) — Customer Quality
- power pipeline quality: 60 (weight 0.12) — Power Pipeline Quality
- capital access: 72 (weight 0.12) — Capital Access
- strategic partnerships: 90 (weight 0.1) — Strategic Partnerships
- technical strength: 38 (weight 0.08) — Technical Strength
- infrastructure execution: 44 (weight 0.08) — Infrastructure Execution
- operational capacity: 36 (weight 0.08) — Operational Capacity
- novelty bonus: 0 (weight 0.3) — company ≤3 years old
Overall Scale Potential 64 evidence coverage 100%
- power pipeline quality: 60 (weight 0.3)
- capital access: 72 (weight 0.25)
- customer quality: 76 (weight 0.2)
- operational capacity: 36 (weight 0.15)
- vertical integration: 78 (weight 0.1)
Overall Survival Probability (5y, %) 79 evidence coverage 72%
- model: unknown (weight 1) — logistic(durability, capital access, customer quality, risks)
Forecasts (rule-based, P10–P90)
| Horizon | Operational MW | Annualised revenue |
|---|---|---|
| 12 months | 355 MW (158 MW–635 MW) | $1.8B ($1.4B–$2.1B) |
| 24 months | 835 MW (363 MW–1,400 MW) | $2.6B ($1.6B–$3.4B) |
| 36 months | 1,243 MW (578 MW–2,000 MW) | $3.5B ($1.9B–$4.9B) |
| 60 months | 1,696 MW (835 MW–2,650 MW) | $5.4B ($2.3B–$8.5B) |
Stored in an immutable prediction ledger and scored against reported outcomes when they fall due. Predictions, not facts.
Outcome probabilities
| Outcome | 12 mo | 24 mo | 36 mo | 60 mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Remain independent | 93% | 85% | 78% | 65% |
| Acquired | 3% | 6% | 9% | 14% |
| Merge | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% |
| Fail | 3% | 7% | 10% | 16% |
| Acquire another company | 16% | 29% | 41% | 58% |
| Financial distress | 7% | 13% | 18% | 29% |
| Major cloud scale (≥2 GW operational or ≥$10B revenue) | 0% | 0% | 9% | 35% |
| Remain niche | 96% | 93% | 81% | 49% |
| Strategic pivot | 15% | 20% | 25% | 35% |
| Exit AI infrastructure | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% |
Ownership outcomes (independent, acquired, merge, fail) sum to 100% at each horizon; the others are independent events.
Vertical-integration stack
- energy CONTROLLED Owns large grid interconnections (2 GW Sweetwater) — does not generate power. (inferred)
- land OWNED Owns sites. (inferred)
- data center OWNED Builds own data centers. (inferred)
- power cooling OWNED Designs DLC Horizons. (inferred)
- gpu hardware OWNED Buys GPUs, financed at <6%. (inferred)
- network OWNED Operates clusters (Exemplar status). (inferred)
- storage UNKNOWN Not captured. (inferred)
- bare metal OWNED Bare-metal AI cloud. (inferred)
- orchestration UNKNOWN Not captured; ClusterMAX 3.0 rated 'Underperforming'. (inferred)
- cloud api UNKNOWN Not captured. (inferred)
- ai platform THIRD PARTY No platform services evidenced. (inferred)
- managed ai THIRD PARTY No managed AI services evidenced. (inferred)
Not yet sourced: gpu count, cash, employees, profile.ceo.
Timeline
-
27 Aug 2026 · debt
IREN — GPU financing for Microsoft contract '<6% per annum' interest rate (upper bound stored).
Source: SEC EDGAR — IREN Reports FY26 Results (8-K) -
13 Aug 2026 · fact
IREN delivers Horizon 1 (50 MW) to Microsoft; NVIDIA Exemplar Cloud on GB300 NVL72
Source: GlobeNewswire (IREN) — IREN Delivers Horizon 1 to Microsoft and Achieves NVIDIA Exemplar Cloud Status on GB300 NVL72 -
3 Nov 2025 · other
IREN — Microsoft 20% prepayment DERIVED: 20% of $9.7B contract value; timing of receipt not captured.
Source: IREN — IREN Signs $9.7 Billion Agreement with Microsoft
Recent coverage
Updated 1 Nov 2026, 11:54 UTC
- 14 Oct 2026 Data Centre
IREN plans 900MW data centre campus near Wagga Wagga
AI cloud provider IREN has outlined plans for a 900MW data centre campus near Wagga Wagga, NSW, with a proposed investment of more than AU$10 billion, according to reports, and a target of initial energisation in 2029. The Nasdaq-listed company announced the proposed Redbank project to the local community, saying…
W.Media