Skip to content

Neocloud Observatory

Prediction ledger

Every prediction is stored with its date, target date, model version and resolution criteria. The ledger is append-only: a new belief is a new run, and past runs are never edited, so accuracy can be scored honestly when outcomes fall due.

Snapshot
25 Sept 2026
Thesis run
#2 · analyst-thesis-v2026Q3
Model run
#1 · forecast-rules-v1.0
Code hash
16c1dbbdcc24cd1d

Analyst thesis predictions

Read the thesis →

Resolves in 2027

  • Nscale's shares begin trading on a US exchange by 2027-03-31.

    70%
    Prediction by 31 Mar 2027 Nscale

    Resolves: YES if Nscale ordinary shares trade on NYSE/Nasdaq by the target date.

  • CoreWeave reports ≥1.85 GW active power as of 2026-12-31 (in its Q4 2026 results).

    65%
    Prediction by 31 Mar 2027 CoreWeave

    Resolves: YES if reported active power at YE2026 ≥ 1,850 MW.

  • Nebius reports ≥800 MW connected power at YE2026.

    55%
    Prediction by 31 Mar 2027 Nebius

    Resolves: YES if the Q4 2026 shareholder letter reports connected power ≥ 800 MW.

  • Nebius reports annualized run-rate revenue ≥ $7B at YE2026.

    50%
    Prediction by 31 Mar 2027 Nebius

    Resolves: YES if reported ARR at Dec 2026 ≥ $7.0B.

  • Crusoe's Microsoft Abilene campus has ≥700 MW live by 2026-12-31 (as reported by 2027-03-31).

    45%
    Prediction by 31 Mar 2027 Crusoe

    Resolves: YES if a L1–L4 source reports ≥700 MW live at the Microsoft Abilene campus at YE2026.

  • Stargate Norway reaches 100,000 NVIDIA GPUs deployed by 2026-12-31 (reported by 2027-03-31).

    20%
    Prediction by 31 Mar 2027 Nscale

    Resolves: YES if reported deployed GPUs at Narvik ≥100k at YE2026.

  • IREN announces a second ≥$1B AI cloud/capacity contract with a customer other than Microsoft by 2027-06-30.

    55%
    Prediction by 30 Jun 2027 IREN

    Resolves: YES if a qualifying contract is disclosed.

  • Sharon AI reports quarterly revenue ≥ $50M for any quarter ending on or before 2027-06-30.

    25%
    Prediction by 30 Jun 2027 Sharon AI

    Resolves: YES if a 10-Q/press release reports ≥$50M revenue for a single quarter.

  • CoreWeave remains an independent public company through 2027-09-25.

    90%
    Prediction by 25 Sept 2027 CoreWeave

    Resolves: YES if not acquired/merged/delisted by target date.

  • Microsoft remains the largest disclosed customer (by summed TCV) across tracked neoclouds on 2027-09-25.

    60%
    Prediction by 25 Sept 2027

    Resolves: Compute summed disclosed TCV by customer across category A–F contracts as of target date.

  • Tracked Neocloud (A–F) operational MW per this observatory ≈ 5.2 GW (80% interval 3.8–7.0 GW) on 2027-09-25.

    5,200 MW
    Prediction by 25 Sept 2027 80% interval 3,800 MW–7,000 MW

    Resolves: Observatory market summary operational_mw as of target date (knowledge-time).

  • CoreWeave annualised revenue ≈ $22B (80%: $16–28B) around Q3 2027.

    $22B
    Prediction by 25 Sept 2027 CoreWeave 80% interval $16B–$28B

    Resolves: 4× reported Q3 2027 revenue.

  • Lambda completes an IPO by 2027-09-30.

    50%
    Prediction by 30 Sept 2027 Lambda

    Resolves: YES if Lambda shares trade publicly by the target date.

  • At least two acquisitions of tracked category A–F companies (majority control) close between 2026-09-25 and 2027-09-30.

    75%
    Prediction by 30 Sept 2027

    Resolves: Count closed acquisitions recorded as company_relationships acquired_by for A–F companies in the window.

  • TensorWave reports ≥30,000 operational AMD GPUs by 2027-09-30.

    35%
    Prediction by 30 Sept 2027 TensorWave

    Resolves: YES if a company/partner disclosure reports ≥30k operational GPUs.

  • Fluidstack closes a funding round at ≥$30B post-money valuation by 2027-09-30.

    40%
    Prediction by 30 Sept 2027 Fluidstack

    Resolves: YES if a closed round at ≥$30B is reported by a L1–L4 source.

  • Median H100 SXM on-demand list price across tracked neoclouds publishing prices is ≤ $2.00/GPU-hr on 2027-09-30.

    60%
    Prediction by 30 Sept 2027

    Resolves: Median of gpu_price_h100_hr observations effective within 30 days of target date.

  • Crusoe publicly files a registration statement (S-1/F-1) by 2027-12-31.

    40%
    Prediction by 31 Dec 2027 Crusoe

    Resolves: YES if a public S-1/F-1 (not confidential DRS) is on EDGAR by the target date.

Resolves in 2028

  • CoreWeave reports ≥3.0 GW active power as of 2027-12-31.

    55%
    Prediction by 31 Mar 2028 CoreWeave

    Resolves: YES if reported active power at YE2027 ≥ 3,000 MW.

  • Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta or Oracle acquires a tracked neocloud or landlord by 2028-09-30.

    30%
    Prediction by 30 Sept 2028

    Resolves: YES if such an acquisition closes in the window.

  • At least one tracked company that has raised ≥$500M experiences financial distress (missed payment, restructuring, going-concern warning, or distressed sale) by 2028-09-30.

    35%
    Prediction by 30 Sept 2028

    Resolves: YES if a qualifying distress event is recorded.

  • Lightning AI (incl. Voltage Park) is acquired by 2028-09-30.

    35%
    Prediction by 30 Sept 2028 Lightning AI (incl. Voltage Park)

    Resolves: YES if an acquisition of majority control closes.

Model forecasts (forecast-rules-v1.0)

Interpretable rules: maturity-specific delivery rates applied to each capacity bucket, revenue growth decaying toward 20%/yr, and hazard-based outcome probabilities. Ranges are P10–P90. Company pages show every horizon (12/24/36/60 months).

Company Operational MW in 12 months Annualised revenue in 12 months P(acquired) 24 mo P(distress) 24 mo P(major-cloud scale) 60 mo
Crusoe B 2,410 MW (1,280 MW–3,970 MW) Insufficient evidence 12% 5% 58.3%
CoreWeave A 2,380 MW (1,940 MW–2,820 MW) $21.9B ($15.5B–$25.9B) 6% 7% 100%
Core Scientific G 702 MW (570 MW–835 MW) $1.4B ($981.4M–$1.6B) 12% 2% 0.5%
TeraWulf G 481 MW (325 MW–620 MW) Insufficient evidence 21% 15% 0%
Galaxy Digital G 370 MW (228 MW–529 MW) Insufficient evidence 15% 15% 0.1%
IREN B 355 MW (158 MW–635 MW) $1.8B ($1.4B–$2.1B) 6% 13% 35.2%
Cipher Mining G 240 MW (120 MW–360 MW) Insufficient evidence 21% 15% 0%
TensorWave A 200 MW (40 MW–400 MW) Insufficient evidence 21% 15% 3.1%
Fluidstack A 194 MW (72 MW–366 MW) $360M ($272M–$416M) 12% 26% 0.2%
G42 (Core42) G 190 MW (90 MW–330 MW) Insufficient evidence 21% 15% 0.1%
Nebius B 171 MW (100 MW–362 MW) $10.8B ($7.1B–$13B) 6% 2% 99.5%
Applied Digital G 160 MW (80 MW–250 MW) Insufficient evidence 21% 15% 0%
Nscale B 108 MW (48 MW–181 MW) $1.1B ($666.3M–$1.4B) 12% 20% 46.6%
Hut 8 G 98 MW (49 MW–170 MW) Insufficient evidence 21% 15% 0%
GMI Cloud D 51 MW (0 MW–152 MW) Insufficient evidence 21% 15% 0.1%
HUMAIN G 30 MW (0 MW–156 MW) Insufficient evidence 21% 15% 0.4%
WhiteFiber D 28 MW (24 MW–35 MW) $177.9M ($143.6M–$199.7M) 21% 4% 0.1%
Sharon AI C 21 MW (4 MW–42 MW) $30.5M ($17.9M–$38.5M) 15% 22% 0.2%
Lambda A 10 MW (4 MW–17 MW) $1.2B ($903.8M–$1.3B) 12% 6% 0.2%
Volta D 7 MW (0 MW–20 MW) Insufficient evidence 21% 15% 0.1%
Vultr E 3 MW (0 MW–8 MW) Insufficient evidence 12% 10% 0.1%
Northern Data (Taiga Cloud) D 0 MW (0 MW–3 MW) Insufficient evidence 0% 15% 0.1%
Together AI A Insufficient evidence $1.4B ($1.2B–$1.5B) 12% 2% 0.1%
Firmus Technologies D Insufficient evidence Insufficient evidence 21% 15% 0%
Yotta Data Services B Insufficient evidence Insufficient evidence 21% 15% 0%
NexGen Cloud (Hyperstack) C Insufficient evidence $279.2M ($164.1M–$352.5M) 21% 5% 0.1%
Lightning AI (incl. Voltage Park) A Insufficient evidence $650M ($567.5M–$702.5M) 12% 2% 0.1%
Ori (Radiant / Brookfield) B Insufficient evidence Insufficient evidence 0% 15% 0%
RunPod C Insufficient evidence $312M ($272.4M–$337.2M) 21% 6% 0.1%
CUDO Compute C Insufficient evidence Insufficient evidence 21% 15% 0%
Genesis Cloud C Insufficient evidence Insufficient evidence 21% 15% 0%